Predicting Tree Mortality in a Changing Climate

ABSTRACT

Climate change has already begun to impact British Columbian forests, and the direct and indirect impacts are predicted to increase in severity and magnitude. Climate-sensitive mortality and kill selection models were developed for lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifola Douglas) in planted sites in British Columbia. Provenance data from a large trial studying populations from western North America were used to predict the number and size of trees killed annually based on temperature and precipitation variables. Seed moved from colder to warmer climates were associated with lower mortality rates compared to seed moved in the opposite direction. Precipitation had a measurable impact on the size distribution of stands at rotation; shorter trees were more likely to succumb to drought-stress conditions than tall trees. These models provide an important link between climate and mortality that can be used to examine climate-based mortality over time.